Shock Degradation Process in The Framework of Bridge Transportation Serviceability
Infrastructure assets are designed to ensure a certain level of reliability. However, climate change may impact infrastructure assets in several ways affecting their reliability and availability. In the particular case of bridges crossing rivers, climate change may have a direct impact on the river discharge, leading to an increase in the frequency and magnitude of flooding events. This, in turn, is likely to result in an increased risk of bridge failure due to local scour, which is the removal of the bed material around the bridge’s pier. The significance of the scouring phenomenon is related to its impact on the reliability of the bridge, as a result, the structure’s capacity will rapidly decrease leading to a sudden failure. Consequently, it is essential to consider the impact of climate change on local scour when assessing the reliability of bridges crossing rivers, which can be represented by considering various Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios from climate models. This problem is addressed in this paper by proposing a Lévy process shock degradation model to study the impact of climate change on the structure’s durability due to local scour. The results show the impact of climate change on the structure’s long-term availability, an expected lifetime before failure, and the probability of failure. The outcome of the results indicates that the expected lifetime of the structure decreases by considering climate change.